The COST 731 Action : a review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems

摘要

Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly nonlinearmodel components involved in such a system. Much effort has been and is being invested inthe quest of dealing with uncertain precipitation observations and forecasts and the propagation ofsuch uncertainties through hydrological and hydraulic models predicting river discharges and riskfor inundation. The COST 731 Action is one of these and constitutes a European initiative whichdeals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems.COST 731 addresses three major lines of development: (1) combining meteorological andhydrological models to form a forecast chain, (2) propagating uncertainty information through thischain and make it available to end users in a suitable form, (3) advancing high-resolution numericalweather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, forinstance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can beresolved by conventional observing systems. Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challengeCOST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups at the interfaces between the differentscientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric (and hydrological)modeling (WG-1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG-2) and between hydrologicmodelling and end-users (WG-3).This paper summarizes the COST 731 activities and its context, provides a review of the recentprogress made in dealing with uncertainties in flood forecasting, and sets the scene for the papers ofthis Thematic Issue. In particular, a bibliometric analysis highlights the strong recent increase inaddressing the uncertainty analysis in flood forecasting from an integrated perspective. Such aperspective necessarily involves the area of meteorology, hydrology, and decision making in orderto take operational advantage of the scientific progress, an aspect in which COST 731 issuccessfully contributing to furthering the flood damage mitigation capabilities in Europe.